Although Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hold above $107,000 – trading just 3.8% below its latest all-time high (ATH) – on-chain data reveals emerging warning signs that warrant attention. These signals hint at potential market exhaustion, suggesting that BTC may be due for a short-term correction or consolidation.
Bitcoin Price Diverges From Binance Open Interest
According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Amr Taha, a notable divergence has developed between BTC’s price and Binance Open Interest. This split suggests a more cautious near-term outlook for the leading cryptocurrency.
Taha shared the following chart illustrating the divergence. While BTC recently formed an equivalent high, Binance Open Interest recorded a lower high – signaling a disconnect between price movement and futures market participation.
The analyst emphasized the technical importance of this divergence. Despite BTC retesting $110,000 yesterday after softer-than-expected US inflation data, Binance Open Interest failed to revisit its May 2025 peak.
This suggests that while price momentum remains strong, there’s weakening participation in the futures market. Such a decline in Open Interest often indicates fading trader confidence or speculative interest, which can precede a short-term correction or slowdown in momentum.
Taha also highlighted over $750 million in stablecoins recently withdrawn from derivatives exchanges – a figure similar to the large-scale outflow seen on May 29, which preceded a BTC price pullback. He explained:
Such synchronized outflows are often indicative of capital rotation or strategic shifts in trader behavior, and when they appear near market highs, they may also reflect hedging or de-risking activity.
Taha concluded that BTC’s failure to decisively break through its ATH – combined with the lack of confirmation from Binance Open Interest and repeated stablecoin outflows – increases the likelihood of a near-term pullback.
However, this does not necessarily undermine the broader bullish trend. Instead, it may suggest that a healthy correction or consolidation phase is needed before BTC can build enough momentum to push to new highs.
BTC Still In The Clear
Despite some cautionary signals, overall sentiment around BTC remains broadly positive. Notably, the current rally has yet to show signs of the retail-driven mania that typically precedes major market tops.
Although miner-to-exchange transfers have seen a recent uptick – indicating increased selling pressure from miners – macroeconomic trends continue to support a bullish outlook.
Specifically, BTC appears to be tracking the growth in global M2 money supply. At press time, BTC trades at $107,336, down 2.4% in the past 24 hours.
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
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